Development of short-range forecasts of weather-driven channel losses and gains to support Reclamation water management

Project ID: 1845
Principal Investigator: Hong Nguyen-DeCorse
Research Topic: Water Operation Models and Decision Support Systems
Funded Fiscal Years: 2018, 2019 and 2020
Keywords: None

Research Question

How does short term weather variability influence losses and gains on the lower Colorado River? Can statistical post-processing and blending of different weather forecast models improve the 1-5 day precipitation forecast, especially for high impact events, such as convective situations during summer months? Does improved weather forecast skill at the grid cell level translate into improvement of loss/gain forecasting skill on the 1-5 day time scale for the Lower Colorado?

Need and Benefit

Water demand in the Colorado River basin is projected to increase further in the future, according to Reclamation's Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study (Bureau of Reclamation, 2012). With little available storage infrastructure on the reach below Parker Dam, managing operational requirements is challenging. Increased efficiency in YAO operations is thus a critical part to a sustainable long-term water management strategy of the Lower Colorado Region. To that end, improved loss/gain forecasts would be useful tools for daily YAO operations, as indicated by the YAO head of Operations and Maintenance Office.

Contributing Partners

Contact the Principal Investigator for information about partners.

Research Products

Bureau of Reclamation Review

The following documents were reviewed by experts in fields relating to this project's study and findings. The results were determined to be achieved using valid means.

Development of short-range forecasts of weather-driven channel losses and gains to support Reclamation water management (final, PDF, 3.9GB)
By Hong Nguyen-DeCorse, Flavio Lehner, Andrew W. Wood, Michael Scheuerer
Report completed on September 30, 2021

This research product summarizes the research results and potential application to Reclamation's mission.


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Last Updated: 6/22/20