Image of Rodeo 2 poster.

Launched June 27, 2019

News Release: Second sub-seasonal climate forecast rodeo provides potential solutions that may provide more time to prepare for weather extremes >>

More Information at Topcoder >>


January 2020 Update

  • National Integrated Drought Information Systems logo.

    The first forecasts of the year-long real-time portion of the competition were due October 14, 2019. The competition is structured as 26 "forecast sprints" every two weeks over the course of the year. Prize categories include awards for individual forecast, seasonal, and annual performance.

    To date, teams have made six forecasts and the first four have been scored. Follow along at the leaderboard hosted by NIDIS.


    September 2019 Update

    The hindcast warm-up portion of Forecast Rodeo II concluded on August 25, 2019. Read more about the hindcast results here.

    The year-long, real-time portion of Rodeo II kicks off on September 30, 2019, with the first forecasts due October 13, 2019. The competition is structured as 26 "forecast sprints" every two weeks over the course of the year. Prize categories include awards for individual forecast, seasonal, and annual performance.


    Overview

    Stemming from the success of Rodeo I (see below), Reclamation is partnering again with NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) on this Rodeo II competition. Rodeo II seeks to create algorithms to enhance sub-seasonal forecasting, reduce risks to our water systems, and help water managers efficiently manage hydrological regimes.

    Improved sub-seasonal forecasts for weather and climate conditions (lead times ranging from 15-42 days and beyond) would allow water managers to better prepare for shifts in hydrologic regimes, such as the onset of drought or occurrence of wet weather extremes.

    Sub-seasonal forecasting is challenging in that it encompasses the time frame where initial state information (e.g., coupled land-atmosphere processes) becomes less important and slowly varying long-term states (e.g., sea-surface temperatures, soil moisture, snow pack) become more important to predicition skill. Additionally, this information is needed 15 days to 45 days ahead of time, or even longer.

    Launch News Release
    Hindcast Winners News Story
    Challenge.gov Post

    Contact

    Ken Nowak | knowak@usbr.gov | 303.445.2197
    Jennifer Beardsley | jbeardsley@usbr.gov | 303.445.2127


    ARCHIVE: Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo I