Evaluating Water Temperature Modeling and Prediction in the Sacramento River Basin

Project ID: 22050
Principal Investigator: Randi Field
Research Topic: Water Supply Forecasting
Funded Fiscal Years: 2022, 2023 and 2024
Keywords: None

Research Question

The central research question addressed by the proposed project is whether it is possible to improve on current approaches for simulation and forecasting of stream temperatures in the Sacramento River downstream of Shasta Reservoir. We hypothesize that improvements can be achieved through assessment and quantification of the quality and characteristics of the current inputs and factors influencing the stream temperature modeling approach, and the development of new meteorological inputs for temperature modeling and inflow temperature estimates for Lake Shasta. These will benefit Reclamation's understanding of its potential strengths and weaknesses, and the investigation of alternative sources of meteorological and stream temperature inputs (both observed/historical and forecast) that could provide a potential upgrade to the existing methodologies.

Need and Benefit

Short-term and seasonal water management decisions require meteorology forecasts, and the accuracy of these forecasts influences the effectiveness of the management decisions. Assessing, understanding, communicating, and improving the skill of air and streamflow temperature forecasts is the key goal of this proposal. A focus of the proposal is leveraging the Gridded Meteorological Ensemble Tool (GMET).

Contributing Partners

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Research Products

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Last Updated: 6/22/20