Evaluating Big Thompson water supply modeling capability improvements from new model forcing and recalibration
To address this research question, researchers will incorporate the EWS network into higher resolution gridded model forcing, and by improving and applying the Optimization Software Toolkit for Research Involving Computational Heuristics (OSTRICH, Mattot, 2017) to operational ECAO hydrologic model. In addressing this question, the team will upgrade and make available several valuable tools, including OSTRICH and a National Weather Service (NWS) river forecast system model emulator that can be used offline from the River Forecast Center (RFC) system for model evaluation and improvement. The project will assess the GMET/HRRR datasets and related ECAO modeling improvement, and the upgraded tools and nationally available datasets can benefit Reclamation offices beyond ECAO. If successful, better model performance could improve both short range and water supply forecast skill.
Need and Benefit
This project will investigate whether harnessing new meteorological data and analysis paired with recent advances in model calibration tools will improve Easter Colorado Area Office hydrologic model performance for the Colorado Big Thompson system.
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