Evaluating Big Thompson water supply modeling capability improvements from new model forcing and recalibration

Project ID: 21082
Principal Investigator: Lindsay Bearup
Research Topic: Water Supply Forecasting
Funded Fiscal Years: 2021, 2022 and 2023
Keywords: None

Research Question

To address this research question, researchers will incorporate the EWS network into higher resolution gridded model forcing, and by improving and applying the Optimization Software Toolkit for Research Involving Computational Heuristics (OSTRICH, Mattot, 2017) to operational ECAO hydrologic model. In addressing this question, the team will upgrade and make available several valuable tools, including OSTRICH and a National Weather Service (NWS) river forecast system model emulator that can be used offline from the River Forecast Center (RFC) system for model evaluation and improvement. The project will assess the GMET/HRRR datasets and related ECAO modeling improvement, and the upgraded tools and nationally available datasets can benefit Reclamation offices beyond ECAO. If successful, better model performance could improve both short range and water supply forecast skill.

Need and Benefit

This project will investigate whether harnessing new meteorological data and analysis paired with recent advances in model calibration tools will improve Easter Colorado Area Office hydrologic model performance for the Colorado Big Thompson system.

Contributing Partners

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Research Products

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Last Updated: 6/22/20