Development of an Ensemble National-Domain Dataset of Gridded Meteorological Fields (UCAR NCAR, Clark)
How can we make optimal use of the available station data, remotely sensed data, and atmospheric model reanalyses, to produce statistically reliable ensemble spatial meteorological fields across the USA?
Need and Benefit
Gridded precipitation and temperature products are used in a variety of water management and planning applications, including assessment of long-term conditions under climate change, evaluation of short-term conditions relevant to reservoir operations, and estimation of event-scale possibilities relevant to infrastructure safety assessments. Such products are inherently uncertain because of myriad factors, including interpolation from a sparse observation network, measurement representativeness, and measurement errors. Generally uncertainty is not explicitly accounted for in gridded products of precipitation or temperature; if it is represented, it is often included in an ad hoc manner. A lack of quantitative uncertainty estimates for hydrometeorological forcing fields limits the application of advanced data assimilation systems and other tools in land surface and hydrologic modeling.
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Bureau of Reclamation Review
The following documents were reviewed by experts in fields relating to this project's study and findings. The results were determined to be achieved using valid means.
New Tools and Datasets for Understanding Observational Uncertainty (final, PDF, 878KB)
By Kenneth Nowak
Publication completed on September 30, 2016