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Second sub-seasonal climate forecast rodeo provides potential solutions that may provide more time to prepare for weather extremes

Media Contact: Peter Soeth, 303-445-3615, psoeth@usbr.gov

For Release: January 13, 2021

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting prize competitionWASHINGTON – The Bureau of Reclamation announced the selection of 24 overall winning solutions from around the world to share $352,000 in the second sub-seasonal climate forecast rodeo. The prize competition sought improvements in sub-seasonal forecasting at the three-to-four and five-to-six-week outlooks to provide water managers more time to prepare for the onset of drought or wet weather extremes.

"Improved forecasting in the three-to-six-week time frame offers opportunities for new operational models and is the frontier of 21st-century water management," said Reclamation Chief Engineer David Raff. "We are excited to explore the winning solutions with our forecasting and water management partner agencies."

Building on the success of the first Sub-seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo, this year-long prize competition compared competitors’ forecasts against forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and a winning method from Rodeo 1. Prizes were awarded in four categories: temperature and precipitation for each at outlooks of 3-to-4 and 5-to-6 weeks. Over $700,000 in prizes were awarded for individual forecast, quarterly, and overall performance in each category. Prizes were awarded to more than 30 unique participants; awards for quarterly and overall performance were contingent upon solvers outperforming, on average, benchmark forecasts.

Reclamation partnered with the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and National Integrated Drought Information System for this competition. NIDIS hosted the leaderboard for forecast Rodeo I and II; find it at https://www.drought.gov/drought/forecast-rodeo-ii-leaderboard. You can learn more about forecast Rodeo I and II at www.usbr.gov/research/challenges/forecastrodeo.html.

This prize competition supports the President's Memorandum on Promoting the Reliable Supply and Delivery of Water in the West by improving water availability forecasts.

Reclamation has been conducting prize competitions since 2015 to spur innovation by engaging a non-traditional, national and international solver community. These prize competitions complement traditional research in their design to target the most persistent science and technology challenges. It has awarded more than $3,000,000 in prizes and has launched 26 competitions. Please visit Reclamation's Water Prize Competition Center to learn more.

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The Bureau of Reclamation is a federal agency under the U.S. Department of the Interior and is the nation's largest wholesale water supplier and second largest producer of hydroelectric power. Our facilities also provide substantial flood control, recreation opportunities, and environmental benefits. Visit our website at https://www.usbr.gov and follow us on Twitter @USBR; Facebook @bureau.of.reclamation; LinkedIn @Bureau of Reclamation; Instagram @bureau_of_reclamation; and YouTube @reclamation.