News Release Archive

Reclamation Announces Initial 2006 Central Valley Project Water Supply Outlook

Media Contact: Jeffrey S. McCracken, 916-978-5100,

For Release: January 23, 2006

The Bureau of Reclamation today announced its initial Water Year 2006 outlook for available supplies from the Federal Central Valley Project (CVP).  Reclamation prepared two forecasts:  a conservative forecast with a 90-percent chance of having runoff greater than forecasted (90% probability of exceedence) and a more probable forecast with a 50-percent chance of having runoff greater than forecasted (50% probability of exceedence).  In the 90-percent exceedence forecast, the water year inflow into Shasta Reservoir is about 5 million acre-feet (the Shasta inflow is a criteria for imposing shortages to settlement contractors and refuges).  This early announcement of the available water supply outlook is based on January 1, 2006, water runoff information prepared by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).

Reclamation traditionally expresses the monthly outlook as a percentage (see summary table) of the contract total for each of the contract categories.  Allocations are also compared to the recent historic 5-year average of the final forecasts.

Decisions on the allocations are made based on the following:

  • Meeting Water Rights Decision D-1641 standards set by the State Water Resources Control Board
  • Meeting water supply and water rights contracts and settlement agreements
  • Satisfying Endangered Species Act requirements
  • Implementing Section 3406(b)(2) of the Central Valley Project Improvement Act
  • Implementing the CALFED Record of Decision (ROD)
  • Implementing the Trinity River Mainstem Restoration ROD

Factors and conditions that will influence the allocations as the year progresses include:

  • Changes to hydrology
  • Opportunities to exercise operational flexibility of the project
  • Opportunities to utilize Joint Point of Diversion at the State Water Project


Mid-Pacific Region
Initial Water Year 2006 Supply Forecast
January 20, 2006

Probability of

 Percent of Historical Average Sacramento Valley Index & Year Type

North of Delta
Allocation *

















Recent Historic Average
(5-Year Average Allocation)





Municipal and Industrial supply is based on historical deliveries
*South of Delta  Allocation pending Smelt Protection Plan

Reclamation is looking at actions in cooperation with other State and Federal agencies to improve south-of-the-Delta allocations.  Reclamation intends to focus efforts in the coming months to address the long-term challenges of balancing the need to export to south-of-the-Delta contractors and provide environmental protection and restoration.  Reclamation and the other agencies remain committed to working closely to resolve both short-term and long-term water reliability and operational flexibility issues.

In both the 90-percent and 50-percent exceedence forecasts, the water supply available for the CVP Eastside Division contractors (Stanislaus River) is projected to be 100 percent (155,000 acre-feet). 

The Friant Division deliveries for Water Year 2006 are projected to be 800,000 acre-feet, or 53 percent of the historic water supply of 1.5 million acre-feet.  The preliminary allocation for the Friant Division Contractors will be 100 percent Class 1 water and 0 percent Class 2 water.  The projected Friant Division delivery of 800,000 acre-feet is based on DWRs 90 percent exceedence forecast (as of January 10, 2006).  As of January 16, 2006, precipitation in the San Joaquin River Basin is 21.78 inches for the water year compared to 31.10 inches this time last year.

Throughout the precipitation season, updated information will be provided as conditions warrant.  To receive the latest forecast on CVP operations, contact Mr. Paul Fujitani at 916-979-2197.  In the coming months, additional information will be posted on the Mid-Pacific Regions Web site at

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Reclamation is the largest wholesale water supplier in the United States, and the nation's second largest producer of hydroelectric power. Its facilities also provide substantial flood control, recreation, and fish and wildlife benefits. Visit our website at and follow us on Twitter @USBR.

Relevant Link:

Mid-Pacific Regions Web site