News Release Archive

Reclamation Announces Preliminary 2007 Central Valley Project Water Supply Outlook

Media Contact: Mr. Jeffrey S. McCracken, 916-978-5100, 01/19/2007 17:12

For Release: January 19, 2007

The Bureau of Reclamation today announced the preliminary Water Year 2007 outlook for available supplies from the Federal Central Valley Project (CVP).  Reclamation prepared two forecasts:  a conservative forecast with a 90-percent chance of having runoff greater than forecasted (90-percent probability of exceedence) and a median forecast with a 50-percent chance of having runoff greater than forecasted (50-percent probability of exceedence).  In the 90-percent exceedence forecast, the water year inflow into Shasta Reservoir is about 4.1 million acre-feet.  The Shasta inflow is a criteria for imposing shortages to settlement contractors and refuges.  This early announcement of the available water supply outlook is based on January 1, 2007, water runoff information prepared by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).

Reclamation traditionally expresses the monthly outlook as a percentage (see summary table) of the contract total for each of the contract categories.  Allocations are also compared to the recent historic 5-year average of the final forecasts.

Mid-Pacific Region
Preliminary Water Year 2007 Supply Forecast
January 19, 2007

Probability of
Exceedence
Forecasts

Percent of Historical Average Sacramento Valley Index & Year Type

North of Delta
Allocation

South of Delta
Allocation

 

Ag

 

M&I*

 

R

 

WR

 

Ag

 

M&I*

 

R

 

WR

50%

98%
Above Normal

100%

100%

100%

100%

60%

85%

100%

100%

90%

77%
Dry

100%

100%

100%

100%

60%

85%

100%

100%

Recent Historic Average
(5-Year Average Allocation)

100%

100%

100%

100%

80%

98%

100%

100%

Ag = Agriculture    M&I = Municipal and Industrial    R = Refuges    WR = Water Rights
*M&I supply is based on historical deliveries

In the 90-percent and 50-percent exceedence forecasts, the water supply available for the CVP Eastside Division contractors (Stanislaus River) is projected to be 30 percent and 100 percent (46,000 acre-feet and 155,000 acre-feet), respectively.

The Friant Division deliveries for Water Year 2007 are projected to be 600,000 acre-feet, or 48 percent of 1.25 million acre-feet, which is the Recent Historic Average (5-Year Average Allocation).  The preliminary allocation for the Friant Division Contractors will be 75 percent Class 1 water and 0 percent Class 2 water.  The projected Friant Division delivery of 600,000 acre-feet is based on DWR’s 90 January 1, 2007 forecast.  As of January 10, 2007, precipitation in the San Joaquin River Basin was 14.25 inches for the water year compared to 21.78 inches this time last year.

The official 2007 CVP water allocation will be made on Wednesday, February 14, 2007.  Throughout the precipitation season, updated information will be provided as conditions warrant.  To receive the latest forecast on CVP operations, please contact Mr. Paul Fujitani at 916-979-2197.  In the coming months, additional information will be posted on the Mid-Pacific Region’s Website at http://www.usbr.gov/mp/

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Reclamation is the largest wholesale water supplier in the United States, and the nation's second largest producer of hydroelectric power. Its facilities also provide substantial flood control, recreation, and fish and wildlife benefits. Visit our website at https://www.usbr.gov and follow us on Twitter @USBR.