March 2008 Pecos River Basin Water Operations Forecast

Last year offered a pleasant reprieve from the previous seven years of drought in the Pecos River Basin. This year however, establishes a new record low year for snowfall. As of April 1 st, 2006, snowpacks in Pecos River Basin were calculated to contain 1.7 inches of snow water equivalent (the amount of water in snow when melted), which is only 11 percent of the normal of 15.3 inches. This is an amount of snow that is normally measured during November, not in April. During the following week this tiny snowpack melted with minimal response in streamflow rise. Spring runoff projections call for only 4,000 acre-feet of inflow to Santa Rosa Reservoir, which is barely eight percent of a normal spring runoff volume. With as much as one-half of this area’s water supply dependant on spring runoff captured in reservoirs, this basin is facing a very dry year.

Signs of drought first occurred in 1996, which was a very dry year, although the following year was extremely wet. In fact, 1997 began as a very dry year but recuperated in a single month of extremely wet weather in April. After 1997 however, the years got drier and drier as the drought progressed. Interestingly, this period of drought followed several wet years from 1991 to 1997 (ignoring 1996 for the moment) which were wetter than any period from the 1950’s through the early 1970’s.

In the Pecos River Basin water supply comes primarily in the form of snow from midwinter storms from the Pacific Ocean, and rainfall during the summer from the Gulf of Mexico. Historically, the greatest monthly precipitation occurs during July and August, although weather during these months is highly variable. Significant flooding has occurred in early and late summer months, such as last year’s April flood in Carlsbad, and the floods of 1965 and 1904.

Droughts in New Mexico are not unusual, in fact the state has a history of droughts. Droughts affected the region from 1931 through 1941 (the Dust Bowl years), and by varied duration, extent and severity from 1942 through 1979. New Mexico is considered a dry state and gets between seven inches of precipitation in the northwest to about 20 inches in certain mountains, with a statewide average of 14 inches. By way of comparison, Utah, another dry state, receives an average of 13 inches annually.

The Pecos River Basin has many competing interests for its limited water resources. These include agriculture, municipalities and industry, recreation and the environment. A local species currently listed as threatened is the blunt nose shiner, a fish that lives in Pecos River . Reclamation is working very carefully to provide water to project water users while keeping the river as habitable as possible for the continued existence of this fish.