Albuquerque Area Office
Water Operations Group
Annual Operations Plan - Calendar Year 2001
Snowpack & Runoff Forecast: Snowpack throughout the Rio Grande Basin was near to above normal for the year. A very wet Fall in 2000 helped keep the precipitation totals for the start of the water year well above average. A break in the weather patterns caused most basins to fall behind in snowfall through December. By mid January, however, the storm track returned to New Mexico and the snowpacks rebuilt to normal to above-normal levels.
Figure 1 is a basin composite of the snowpack within the Upper Rio Grande Basin. The season started off strong, but diminished through January. A series of storms built the snowpack back up to normal levels. Cool temperatures in the high country have kept the snows on the ground through April. On May 3, 2001 the snowpack was at 111%. Graphs of the individual SNOTELS in the basin can be found here.
Figure 2 shows the snowpack data for the Rio Chama Basin. The year started very good, but due to a lack of storms it looked like it could turn into another dismal year on the Chama. Things turned around in January and it looked like it would be an average year after all. On May 3 the snowpack had started to melt out rapidly and had fallen to 74% of average. Judging from SNOTEL sites in the area it looks like the snowpack was normal but it was melting sooner than usual. Graphs of the individual SNOTELS in the basin can be found here.
The Sangre de Cristo Basin had normal to above normal snowpack for most of the Winter. Figure 3 shows the same pattern as in the other basins with an early heavy snowpack which fell behind the average until January. It has remained above average until recently where on May 3 it stood at 84%. Many sites have appeared to have already melted out. Graphs of the individual SNOTELS in the basin can be found here.
Figure 4 shows the snowpack within the Jemez Basin. As was typical of all the basins in the area, the Jemez Basin experienced an early good snowfall followed by a dry spell followed by more snow. The snowpack was above normal for most of the season. Melt out occurred early in mid April and hence the average for end of April was much below average. Graphs of the individual SNOTELS in the basin can be found here.
Figure 5 shows the snowpack for the Upper San Juan Basin. This data is relevant for the San Juan-Chama Project because it will determine the inflow into Heron Reservoir through the Azotea Tunnel. Unlike the other basins there has been no appreciable decline in snowpack through early Spring. Late storms have kept the snowpack above 100% through April. Graphs of the individual SNOTELS in the basin can be found here.
The average snowpack meant an average runoff prediction. Table 1 lists the National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) forecasted runoff volumes for select stations within the basin. With the exception of Del Norte, Platoro Reservoir, and the Rio Blanco, the forecasted volumes for all stations listed in Table 1 cover the period of March through July. The volumes listed for Del Norte and Platoro cover the runoff period of April through September, while the Rio Blanco forecast covers the runoff period of April through July. Figure 6 is a graphical representation of the forecasted runoff for some of the major forecast points listed in the May 1 NRCS forecast.
Table 1 - Rio Grande Basin NRCS Streamflow Forecasts - April 1, 2001
| Forecast Point | Most Probable Runoff Volume (ac-ft) | Percent of 30 Year Average | 1961 - 1990 Average Volume (ac-ft) |
| Rio Grande near Del Norte | 620,000 | 119 | 520,000 |
| Platoro Reservoir Inflow | 64,000 | 99 | 65,000 |
| Embudo Creek at Dixon | 40,000 | 95 | 42,000 |
| Rio Blanco at Diversion Dam | 51,000 | 94 | 54,000 |
| Navajo River at Diversion Dam | 63,000 | 97 | 65,000 |
| El Vado Reservoir Inflow | 215,000 | 96 | 223,000 |
| Rio Grande at Otowi Bridge | 715,000 | 104 | 686,000 |
| Santa Fe River near Santa Fe | 4,600 | 115 | 4,000 |
| Jemez Canyon Reservoir Inflow | 48,000 | 126 | 38,000 |
| Rio Grande at San Marcial | 500,000 | 100 | 501,000 |
