Albuquerque Area Office

Water Operations Group

Annual Operations Plan - Calendar Year 2001

Post Runoff Climate Outlook: The forecast maps show an average monsoon season this year. These long-range forecasts should be taken with many grains of salt. Last year's forecast was for a slightly better monsoon season which never really materialized.

Charles Liles, a local meteorologist, has written papers on the effect of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on rainfall in Albuquerque and New Mexico. In it, he suggests that due to the PDO trends he examined, this summer might actually be drier than normal for New Mexico. Forecasting the magnitude and length of the monsoon season in this area, over long range periods, has been difficult at best. With this in mind, operations and reservoir scheduling staff are very aware that release schedules may change on a day to day basis.