Best Practices and Risk Methodology
The Bureau of Reclamation has been using risk analysis as the primary support for dam safety decision-making for about 15 years, and has developed procedures to analyze risks for a multitude of potential failure modes. Manuals, guidelines, standards, and practical reference material on how to perform risk analysis for dam safety applications are lacking. The Best Practices Training Manual contains what are considered the "Best Practices" currently in use for estimating dam safety risks at the Bureau of Reclamation. Risk analysis at the Bureau of Reclamation has evolved over the years and will continue to evolve. Therefore, updates to this manual are planned in the future as significant improvements are developed.
From the outset of implementing risk analysis, Reclamation recognized that procedures and data available for dam safety risk analysis, while quantitative, do not provide precise numerical results. Therefore, this manual strives to present useful information, tools, and techniques, while stopping short of a "cookbook" approach. This allows the risk analyst(s) to use the proper balance of engineering judgment and calculations in estimating risks, and to understand and "build the case" for what is influencing the risks the most. Thus, the numbers, while important, are less important than understanding and documenting what the major risk contributors are and why.
The Bureau of Reclamation conducts risk analysis at different levels, from screening level analyses performed by an individual (with peer review) during a Comprehensive Facility Review (CFR), to full blown facilitated team risk analyses, which include participation by field personnel. It is envisioned that the tools presented in this manual can be used for any level of risk analysis. The primary difference will be the level of detail to which the analyses are carried. These differences are noted where appropriate.
Contact for course information: Bill Fiedler (WFiedler@usbr.gov)
Best Practices Chapters
Please note that these documents are intended to serve as instruction material during the training course of the same name and should not be used as a stand-alone reference. In many cases, additional details should be sought from the available references or an experienced risk analyst.
| Chapter |
Title |
Latest Update |
* |
Complete Best Practices Document
All Presenations |
2011 |
0 |
Cover, Introduction, and Table of Contents
Presentation |
April 2011 |
1 |
Potential Failure Mode Identification, Description, and Screening
Presentation
|
April 6, 2010 |
2 |
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Presentation
|
April 4, 2011 |
3 |
Hydrologic Hazard Analysis
Presentation |
April 13, 2010 |
4 |
Reservoir Level Exceedance Curves
Presentation |
June 19, 2009 |
5 |
Consequences of Dam Failure
Presentation |
August 2010 |
6 |
Event Trees
Presentation
Load Uncertainty Presentation
|
March 14, 2011 |
7 |
Probabilistic Stability Analysis (Reliability Analysis)
Presentation |
July 2, 2010 |
8 |
Subjective Probability and Expert Elicitation
Presentation |
June 20, 2009 |
9 |
Erosion of Rock and Soil
Presentation |
March 29, 2011 |
10 |
Reinforced Concrete Fragility
Presentation |
March 11, 2011 |
11 |
Flood Overtopping Failure of Dams
Presentation |
June 18, 2009 |
12 |
Risk Analysis for Concrete Gravity Dams
Presentation |
July 2, 2009 |
13 |
Risk Analysis for Concrete Arch Dams
Presentation |
April 6, 2010 |
14 |
Risk Analysis for Concrete Buttress Dams
Presentation |
June 9, 2009 |
15 |
Seismic Failure of Spillway Radial Gates
Presentation |
June 20, 2009 |
16 |
Trunnion Friction Radial Gate Failure
Presentation |
March 19, 2011 |
17 |
Seismic Spillway Pier Failure
Presentation |
March 19, 2011 |
18 |
Drum Gates and Other Gates
Presentation |
March 14, 2011 |
18 B |
Mechanical Electrical Systems
Presentation |
May 2010 |
19 |
Stagnation Pressure Failure of Spillway Chutes
Presentation |
June 17, 2009 |
20 |
Cavitation Damage Induced Failure of Spillways
Presentation |
June 17, 2009 |
21 |
Overtopping of Walls and Stilling Basin Failure
Presentation |
April 10, 2010 |
22 |
Seismic Risks for Embankments
Presentation |
July 2, 2010 |
23 |
Seismic Failure of Spillway/Retaining Walls
Presentation |
March 19, 2011 |
24 |
Internal Erosion and Piping Risks for Embankments
Presentation |
April 7, 2010 |
25 |
Landslide Risks
Presentation |
July 2, 2010 |
26 |
Risk Estimates for Operational Failure
Presentation |
April 7, 2010 |
27 |
Construction Risk
Presentation |
July 2010 |
28 |
Combining and Portraying Risks
Presentation |
March 26, 2011 |
29 |
Building the Case
Presentation |
July 2009 |
30 |
Public Risk Tolerance and Risk Guidelines
Presentation |
May 3, 2010 |
31 |
Qualitative and Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment
Presentation |
April 7, 2010 |
32 |
Facilitating Risk Analysis
Presentation |
February 7, 2009 |
33 |
Glossary |
December 3, 2009 |
34 |
Exercise Solutions
Smoky Ridge |
May 6, 2010 |
Last Updated: 11/03/2011
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