| Identifying and Exploring Driving Forces that Could Influence the Outcome of Future Western Water Scenarios |
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Social Driving Forces |
Votes Received as the Most Significant
Drivers 1/ |
Is the Driver Predetermined to Occur or is its Evolution Uncertain? 2/ |
| Social Driver - Population Changes | 39 | Uncertain |
| A large variety of demographic changes will occur in the West in the next 25 years. Repopulation of urban centers and continued suburbanization will increase municipal water demand. This demand may take water away from agriculture. Immigration from other countries will continue and may increase owing to the aging of the existing population, i.e. the country's workforce will depend more and more heavily on immigrants. Since we do not know what the overall water ethic of immigrants will be, the effects of immigration on water demand are unknown. Coastal and amenity areas such as the Colorado Front Range will continue to grow in population, but mid-western areas will decline. Thus, water shortages will be geographically specific and localized. | ||
| Social Driver - Public Perceptions | 23 | Uncertain |
| Public officials need to do a better job of educating the citizenry and media about the complexity and severity of water issues. Water has been so plentiful in some citizens' lives that it may be difficult for them to imagine that the supply could become or already is scarce. Until water shortages become severe, some citizens may be unwilling to conserve or change their life styles. | ||
| Social Driver - Water Quality Changes Owing to Increased Recreational Demand | 16 | Predetermined |
| Recreational demand for water resources is growing, resulting in the proliferation of recreational vehicles, boats, new roads, new trails, and more traffic. This will cause increased depletion and degradation of surface and ground water resources owing to increased sedimentation, sewage disposal, and trash. | ||
| Social Driver - Native American Issues | 14 | Uncertain |
| Native Americans are seeking adjudication of waters rights as reservation populations grow. Casino profits have given Tribes increasing political influence. The Winters Doctrine is increasingly being cited and enforced. This doctrine states that when the Federal government established a reservation, the government implicitly reserved a quantity of water necessary to fulfill the purposes of the reservation. It entitles a Tribe to sufficient water for agriculture, livestock, domestic, recreational, cultural and other uses. The procurement of waters may divert current supply to Tribal uses. | ||
| Social Driver - Global Water Issues | 13 | Uncertain. |
| Global conflicts over water may cause food shortages that will increase demand for U.S. agricultural products. Alternately, global shortages may give rise to new conservation technologies that the U.S. could benefit from. | ||
| Social Driver - Terrorist Attacks | 10 | Predetermined |
| Terrorist attacks on water facilities could cause severe localized shortages. Fear of such attacks in urban areas could cause the populace to disperse into exurban, rural, and even frontier locales, resulting in adverse impacts to local water supplies. | ||
| Social Driver: Demand for Recreational Uses of Water Generates Corresponding Demand for Second Homes | 5 | Predetermined |
| As second homes proliferate in amenity areas there will be corresponding degradation of surface and ground water owing to increased sedimentation, sewage, and trash. In addition, the loss of endangered species habitat could result in the diversion of water supply from other uses such as agriculture, domestic use, or municipal and industrial use. | ||
| Growing Power of Special Interest Groups | 2 | Uncertain |
| Political disputes between and among environmentalists, developers, citizens, land-owners, and others can increase the costs of providing water supply or delay its provision. | ||
1/ The number of votes that the driver received from all meeting participants. Each meeting participant was given 20 votes. They were asked to allocate their votes based on the drivers that they believed to be the most significant drivers that will influence water supply, water demands, and water uses in the west over the next 20 to 25 years. All 20 votes could be placed on a single driver or spread across several drivers.
2/Predermined Drivers: Predetermined drivers represent drivers that we know are having, or will have, an influence on western water supplies and demands. However, the extent and type of the influence can be uncertain.
Uncertain Drivers: Drivers that could evolve and have an influence on western water supplies and demands.