Identifying and Exploring Driving Forces that Could Influence the Outcome of Future Western Water Scenarios |
||
|
Political Driving Forces |
Votes Received as the Most Significant
Drivers 1/ |
Is the Driver Predetermined to Occur or is its Evolution Uncertain? 2/ |
| Political Driver - Water quality issues | 31 | Predetermined |
| The view of water quality problems is affected by politics and vice versa. Many important water quality issues depend on federal and state regulations and the enforcement of those regulations. These include NPDES applications, regulations associated with stormwater and drainage, herbicide/pesticide regulations, and TMDLs. To date, the development of most TMDLs has been driven more by lawsuits than by scientific issues. As water shortages develop in populated areas, water transfers are becoming more common, and water quality can be an important consideration in those transfers. The EPA is in the process of setting a regulatory limit for perchlorate in drinking water. This chemical, a component of rocket fuel, has contaminated several western aquifers and the entire lower Colorado River. Limits ranging from 1-34 ug/L are under discussion. Politics is likely to become a factor in the final decision because a limit of 1 ug/L would make the entire lower Colorado River unsuitable for drinking without expensive treatment. | ||
| Political Driver - Endangered Species Issues | 25 | Predetermined |
| The endangered species act (ESA) frequently comes under attack for political reasons. Because the ESA trumps water rights and compacts, enforcement and eventual re-authorization of the ESA has far-reaching impacts. Key questions include 1) will states' water rights and compacts trump ESA?, 2) will use of the "God Squad" (a committee with authority to override the ESA) increase?, and 3) what will happen if the ESA is not re-authorized or if it is significantly changed? | ||
| Political Driver - Homeland Security Costs | 22 | Uncertain |
| Costs associated with the new Homeland Security Department are expected to siphon money from water projects and enforcement of water regulations. How this department grows and how many resources are taken from other programs are key questions. | ||
| Political Driver - Changing Public Priorities | 19 | Uncertain |
| It is likely that population increases will lead to a shift in water use from agriculture to municipal and industrial uses. What effect will factors such as drought and disputes over water rights have on support for water projects? What impact will regulations such as ESA and disputes over project siting (NIMBY) have on the development of future projects? | ||
| Political Driver - Allocation of Costs for Water Contracts | 13 | Uncertain |
| Many water contracts in the West are heavily subsidized through Federal and/or State water projects. The extent to which those subsidies continue will have significant impacts on water use and the need for additional supplies. The need for new water projects will depend heavily on whether costs continue to be subsidized or whether future water deliveries are based on the actual costs involved. Several closely-related issues are likely to affect future cost allocations. These issues received initially received votes as separate categories but are included here for this discussion. The related issues are: will subsidies for agriculture increase or decrease? (9 votes), will efficiencies in water use be mandated? (5 votes), how will water rights issues evolve? (3 votes), and how will "beneficial use" be defined and how will that definition be used for future allocations? (1 vote) | ||
| Political Driver - World Trade | 6 | Predetermined |
| What will happen to water rights and trans-basin water deliveries under treaties such as GATT and NAFTA? Since agricultural products compete in the world market, wll tariffs on agricultural products be used to control water? What effects will violations of water treaties, particularly those with Mexico, have on trade? | ||
| Political Driver - Water Rights of Native Americans | 2 | Predetermined |
| Tribal water rights are currently being adjudicated in several states. The outcomes of those legal cases can have significant impacts on water allocations. Potential impacts will depend in large part on the political effectiveness of the tribes in this arena. How will water rights granted to tribes impact existing allocations? Since these legal disputes do not create new water, how will the loss of allocations for existing users be dealt with? What will be the seniority of water rights granted to tribes? Will there be limitations on the sale of water by the tribes? | ||
1/ The number of votes that the driver received from all meeting participants. Each meeting participant was given 20 votes. They were asked to allocate their votes based on the drivers that they believed to be the most significant drivers that will influence water supply, water demands, and water uses in the west over the next 20 to 25 years. All 20 votes could be placed on a single driver or spread across several drivers.
2/Predermined Drivers: Predetermined drivers represent drivers that we know are having, or will have, an influence on western water supplies and demands. However, the extent and type of the influence can be uncertain.
Uncertain Drivers: Drivers that could evolve and have an influence on western water supplies and demands.