Identifying and Exploring Driving Forces that Could Influence the Outcome of Future Western Water Scenarios

Identifying and Exploring Driving Forces that Could Influence the Outcome of Future Western Water Scenarios
Economic Driving Forces	Votes Received as the Most Significant Drivers 1/	Is the Driver Predetermined to Occur or is its Evolution Uncertain? 2/
Economic Driver - Water pricing structures	37	Uncertain
Since water flows toward money and flows away from higher costs, how will pricing structures for water begin to have more influence on water demands and uses? Will future water supplies be priced closer to scarcity or true values? Will water prices remain low? Will graduated rate structures influence conservation and who pays the most for water?
Economic Driver -Infrastructure development, repair, and maintenance costs	25	Predetermined
Western water storage and delivery systems are an extensive and expensive infrastructure. The infrastructure is aging and lacks modern efficiency features and technologies. How will replacement and repair costs affect infrastructure reliability? Will modernization of existing facilities occur? Will new facilities be built? Will taxpayers foot the bill? How will modernization influence efficient water deliveries and use? How will this impact available water supplies?
Economic Driver - Alternatives and influences that could increase water supplies	23	Uncertain
Will new water supply projects be constructed that increase supplies to better match demands? Will desalination be more viable and able to increase supplies to help keep pace with increased demands? Will weather modification techniques be able to increase water supplies to help keep pace with demands? Will water conservation practices become more integrated into water management to the extent that existing supplies can be better utilized and stretched?
Economic Driver - Habits and behaviors of water consumers	20	Uncertain
Will financial incentives be used to influence water conservation behaviors? What impacts could financial incentives have on water supplies? Will graduated rate structures and other cost deterrents influence water consumption behaviors? Will education and ethics play a larger role in water conservation behaviors? The next generation, today's teenager, will drive tomorrow's water policies and water consumption behaviors. What will be their primary values and beliefs? The possible impacts that this or any driver can have on future water scenarios should consider current water withdrawal rates for western states as compared to the nation as a whole. USGS data indicates public per capita water withdrawal rates in the west average 254 GPD while the rest of the nation averages 179 GPD. Total western water withdrawals for all uses combined average 2071 GPD while the nation as a whole averages 1500 GPD. Ninety percent of western water withdrawals are attributed to irrigated agriculture.
Economic Driver - Energy costs and availability	10	Predetermined
Energy is used to move water, use water, desalinate water, and recycle water. Oil and gas extraction produces water that can be converted to useable waters through desalination/water purification technologies. Energy drives our industries, economies, and lifestyles. How will future energy supplies and costs influence water consuming industries? How will energy costs and the availability of energy influence the use of desalination?
Economic Driver - The economic viability of commercial irrigated agricultural	4	Predetermined
Since irrigated agriculture accounts for greater than 90% of western water withdrawals, the future of irrigated agriculture in the west will influence water supplies in the west. Will crop values support continued economic viability in the west? How will bioengineered crops influence agricultural productivity? Will we be able to grow more crops with less water? Will we realize greater crop yields? Will health concerns and events associated with bio engineered crops cause a rush back to traditional agriculture? How will increased agriculture efficiency and competition from other countries affect the U.S. agricultural industry? Will we have a greater surplus agricultural production capacity than we currently have? The USDA currently pays farmers to not grow certain crops in order to influence crop supply and prices. Will this practice continue and will it begin to have a greater influence on the need and viability of western irrigated agriculture?

1/ The number of votes that the driver received from all meeting participants. Each meeting participant was given 20 votes. They were asked to allocate their votes based on the drivers that they believed to be the most significant drivers that will influence water supply, water demands, and water uses in the west over the next 20 to 25 years. All 20 votes could be placed on a single driver or spread across several drivers.

2/Predermined Drivers: Predetermined drivers represent drivers that we know are having, or will have, an influence on western water supplies and demands. However, the extent and type of the influence can be uncertain.

Uncertain Drivers: Drivers that could evolve and have an influence on western water supplies and demands.