Tony Wahl. 2010. "Dam Breach Modeling- An Overview of Analysis Methods". Bureau of Reclamation, Report Number PAP-1018.
Abstract: The two primary tasks in the analysis of a potential dam failure are the prediction of the reservoir outflow hydrograph and the routing of that hydrograph through the downstream valley to determine dam failure consequences. When populations at risk are located close to a dam, it is important to accurately predict the breach outflow hydrograph and its timing relative to events in the failure process that could trigger the start of evacuation efforts. This paper provides an overview of the methods used to predict breach outflow hydrographs, ranging from simple methods appropriate for appraisal-level estimates to more complex methods for analysis of individual cases. The progression of technology development is followed from methods that predict peak outflow directly to those that predict breach development directly and model the hydraulics analytically, and finally to methods that model erosion processes, breach development and hydraulics in great detail.
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