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Mid-Pacific Region
Sacramento, Calif.
Media Contact:
Jeffrey McCracken
916-978-5100

Released On: January 23, 2003

BUREAU OF RECLAMATION ANNOUNCES INITIAL WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR WATER YEAR 2003
Reclamation today announced its initial Water Year 2003 outlook for available supplies from the Federal Central Valley Project (CVP). Reclamation prepared two forecasts: one for dry conditions (90-percent exceedence) and one for above-normal conditions (50-percent exceedence). In the dry forecast, the water year inflow into Shasta Reservoir is about 5.3 million acre-feet (the Shasta inflow is a criteria for imposing shortages to water rights contractors, refuges, and managed water under the Central Valley Project Improvement Act [CVPIA]). This early announcement of the available water supply outlook is based on January 2003 water runoff information prepared by the California Department of Water Resources.

Reclamation traditionally expresses the monthly outlook as a percentage (see summary table) of the contract total for each of the contract categories. Allocations are also compared to the recent historic 5-year average of the final forecasts.

Decisions on the allocations are made based on the following:

- Meeting Water Rights Decision D-1641 standards set by the State Water Resources Control Board - Meeting water supply and water rights contracts and agreements - Satisfying Endangered Species Act requirements - Implementing Section 3406(b)(2) of the CVPIA - Implementing the CALFED Record of Decision - Implementing the Trinity River Mainstem Restoration Record of Decision as modified by recent court decisions.

Factors and conditions that will influence the allocations as the year progresses include:

- Changes to hydrology - Opportunities to exercise operational flexibility of the project.

Mid-Pacific Region Initial Water Year 2003 Supply Forecast January 24, 2003

Probability of Exceedence Forecasts

Percent of Historical Average Sacramento Valley Index & Year Type

North of Delta Allocation South of Delta Allocation

Ag M&I R WR Ag M&I R WR 50% 102% Above Normal 100 100 100 100 55 80 100 100 90% 79% Below Normal 100 100 100 100 50 75 100 100

Recent Historic Average (5-Year Average Allocation) 92 96 100 100 71 91 100 100

Municipal and Industrial supply is based on historical deliveries.

Reclamation is looking at actions in cooperation with other State and Federal agencies within the CALFED Bay-Delta Program to improve south-of-the-Delta allocations. Reclamation intends to focus efforts through the CALFED process in the coming months to address the long-term challenges of balancing the need to export to south-of-the-Delta contractors and provide environmental protection and restoration. Reclamation and the other agencies in CALFED remain committed to working closely with the State to resolve both short-term and long-term water reliability and operational flexibility issues.

In the 90-percent exceedence forecast, the allocation for CVP Eastside Division contractors (Stanislaus River) is projected to be zero percent. In the 50-percent exceedence forecast, the allocation is projected to be approximately 19 percent of the contracted amount.

Reclamation is making a preliminary water allocation for the CVP (also included is the Friant Division and the Cachuma Project) for WY 2003. A preliminary allocation of 75 percent of class 1 water supply is based on a very conservative forecast for January 1, 2003, prepared by the California Department of Water Resources. Reclamation will provide an official allocation on February 14, 2003.

Throughout the precipitation season, updated information will be provided as conditions warrant. To receive the latest forecast on CVP operations, contact Paul Fujitani, at 916-979-2197. In the coming months, additional information will be posted on the Mid-Pacific Region's website at www.mp.usbr.gov.

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Reclamation is the largest wholesale water supplier and the second largest producer of hydroelectric power in the United States, with operations and facilities in the 17 Western States. Its facilities also provide substantial flood control, recreation, and fish and wildlife benefits. Visit our website at www.usbr.gov.