Released On: April 23, 2003
Reclamation has prepared two operations forecasts based on April 1, 2003, hydrologic conditions: one for dry-year conditions at a 90-percent probability of exceedence and one for below-normal conditions at a 50-percent probability of exceedence. Reclamation's forecasts indicate the same increase in water supply would be available under both hydrologies. The April 18 update of the water supply conditions, prepared by DWR, shows a significant increase in runoff conditions since the beginning of the month.
Mid-Pacific Region Water Year 2003 Supply Allocation April 23, 2003
Probability of Exceedence Forecasts
Percent of Historical Average Sacramento Valley Index & Year Type North of Delta Allocation South of Delta Allocation
Ag M&I R WR Ag M&I R WR
90% 76% Dry 100 100 100 100 65 90* 100 100
50% 81% Below Normal 100 100 100 100 65 90* 100 100
Recent Historic Average
(5-Year Average Allocation) 92 96 100 100 71 91 100 100
*Municipal and Industrial supply is based on historical deliveries.
At this time, the CVP Cross Valley Canal Contractors will receive an in-delta water supply of 65 percent. This water supply is dependent upon adequate capacity being available at the State Water Project Banks Pumping Plant to convey the water.
In both the 90-percent and 50-percent exceedence forecasts, there is no water supply allocation for the CVP East Side Division contractors (Stanislaus River).
In cooperation with CALFED agencies, Reclamation has developed and implemented an operations plan for 2003, which supports water supply reliability and fishery protections and restoration needs. The current plan employs water augmentation tools reflected in the forecast including use of the Environmental Water Account (EWA) assets to satisfy potential late spring export curtailments at the CVP Tracy Pumping Plant and efficient utilization of San Luis Reservoir storage. The supply to CVP contactors south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta was augmented recently when Reclamation filled the CVP share of San Luis Reservoir near Los Banos and used available capacity at Tracy Pumping Plant for about a week to export supplemental water.
The Friant Division deliveries for Water Year 2003 are projected to be 800,000 acre-feet or 53 percent of the historic water supply of 1.5 million acre-feet. The allocation for Friant Division contractors will be 100 percent of Class 1 water and 0 (zero) percent of Class 2 water. However, Reclamation will make available for class 2 contractors between 50,000 to 150,000 acre-feet of class 2 water during the uncontrolled season beginning on April 22, 2003 for a minimum of 5 days.
Reclamation will continue to monitor Millerton Lake and on a daily basis determine whether to extend or terminate the uncontrolled season. As part of this analysis, Reclamation will include a rolling 5-day forecast as to the likelihood of uncontrolled deliveries for each of the next 5 days. The projected Friant Division delivery of 800,000 acre-feet is based on DWR's 90-percent exceedence forecast. The 2003 precipitation season is about 90 percent complete. Through April 21, 2003, precipitation in the San Joaquin River watershed was 35.03 inches compared to 34.9 inches at this time last year.
Throughout the precipitation season, updated information will be provided as conditions warrant. For additional information on the Water Year 2003 Allocation press release, contact the Public Affairs Office at 916-978-5100, TDD 916-978-5608. In the coming months, additional information will continue to be posted on the Mid-Pacific Region's website at www.mp.usbr.gov .
DOI | Recreation.gov | USA.gov
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