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Mid-Pacific Region
Sacramento, Calif.
Media Contact:
Jeffrey McCracken
916-978-5100

Released On: January 21, 2005

Bureau Of Reclamation Announces Initial Water Supply Outlook For Water Year 2005
Reclamation today announced its initial Water Year 2005 outlook for available supplies from the Federal Central Valley Project (CVP). Reclamation prepared two forecasts: one for dry conditions (90-percent exceedence) and one for above-normal conditions (50-percent exceedence). In the dry forecast, the water year inflow into Shasta Reservoir is about 4.2 million acre-feet (the Shasta inflow is a criteria for imposing shortages to settlement contractors and refuges). This early announcement of the available water supply outlook is based on January 1, 2005, water runoff information prepared by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).

Reclamation traditionally expresses the monthly outlook as a percentage (see summary table) of the contract total for each of the contract categories. Allocations are also compared to the recent historic 5-year average of the final forecasts.

Decisions on the allocations are made based on the following:

- Meeting Water Rights Decision D-1641 standards set by the State Water Resources Control Board

- Meeting water supply and water rights contracts and settlement agreements

- Satisfying Endangered Species Act requirements

- Implementing Section 3406(b)(2) of the Central Valley Project Improvement Act

- Implementing the CALFED Record of Decision (ROD)

- Implementing the Trinity River Mainstem Restoration ROD

- Joint Points of Diversion and increased integration with State Water Project operations

Factors and conditions that will influence the allocations as the year progresses include:

- Changes to hydrology

- Opportunities to exercise operational flexibility of the project

Mid-Pacific Region
Initial Water Year 2005 Supply Forecast
January 21, 2005 

Probability of
Exceedence
Forecasts

 Percent of Historical AverageSacramentoValley Index & Year Type

 North of Delta
Allocation

South of Delta
Allocation

Ag

M&I

R

 WR

Ag

 M&I

R

 WR

50%

93%
Above Normal

100

100

100

100

 60

85

 100

 100

90%

 72%
Dry

 60

85

100

 100

60

85

 100

 100

Recent Historic Average
(5-Year Average Allocation)

 92

 97

 100

 100

 66

 91

 100

 100

Municipal and Industrial supply is based on historical deliveries.

Reclamation is looking at actions in cooperation with other State and Federal agencies to improve south-of-the-Delta allocations. Reclamation intends to focus efforts in the coming months to address the long-term challenges of balancing the need to export to south-of-the-Delta contractors and provide environmental protection and restoration. Reclamation and the other agencies remain committed to working closely to resolve both short-term and long-term water reliability and operational flexibility issues.

In the 90-percent exceedence forecast, the allocation for CVP Eastside Division contractors (Stanislaus River) is projected to be zero percent. In the 50-percent exceedence forecast, the allocation is projected to be approximately 15,000 acre-feet.

The Friant Division deliveries for Water Year 2005 are projected to be 1,286,000 acre-feet, or 86 percent of the historic water supply of 1.5 million acre-feet. The preliminary allocation for the Friant Division Contractors will be 100 percent Class 1 water and 35 percent Class 2 water. The projected Friant Division delivery of 1,286,000 acre-feet is based on DWR's 90 percent exceedence forecast (as of January 20, 2005). As of January 19, 2005, precipitation in the San Joaquin River Basin is 31.10 inches for the water year compared to 16.20 inches this time last year.

Throughout the precipitation season, updated information will be provided as conditions warrant. To receive the latest forecast on CVP operations, contact Paul Fujitani at 916-979-2197. In the coming months, additional information will be posted on the Mid-Pacific Region's Web site at www.usbr.gov/mp/.

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Reclamation is the largest wholesale water supplier and the second largest producer of hydroelectric power in the United States, with operations and facilities in the 17 Western States. Its facilities also provide substantial flood control, recreation, and fish and wildlife benefits. Visit our website at www.usbr.gov.