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West-wide Climate Risk Assessments

Baseline Assessments

(A) Transforming General Circulation Model information into a spatial and temporal scale relevant to a planning context

The WWCRAs assessments of risks and impacts associated with climate change rely significantly on the information developed in partnership between Reclamation, the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, Santa Clara University, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and University of California’s Institute for Research on Climate Change and Its Societal Impacts provided by the Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections archive.  The archive serves a total of 112 unique climate projections from 16 different GCMs.

(B) Projections of Future Water Supply

In Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 Reclamation is developing a set of projections of surface water supplies for the Western United States.  The surface water supply projections will build upon the 112 climate projections described in (A) and utilize them through the use of Variable Infiltration Capacity models that were developed at the University of Washington.  The product will be 112 unique projections of surface water supply for the Western United States.

West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments Flyer (pdf - 36 KB)

(C) Projections of Future Water Demand

In FY 2010 Reclamation WWCRA activities will be focused on assessing differences and commonalities in assessing demand throughout the eight major river basins identified in the SWA.  Future year activities will include the development of patchwork coverage for the Western United States of water demand evaluations leading to more consistent and common approaches in assessing climate change impacts on water demand.

(D) Simulating future operations of Reclamation facilities

In FY 2010 Reclamation WWCRA activities will be focused on assessing differences and commonalities in assessing operations utilizing climate change informed assessments of supply and demand in the 8 major river basins identified in the SWA.  Future year activities will look to conducting common operational risk assessments in the basins.

(E) Determining Aquatic Ecosystem Responses

In initial WWCRA activities, various ecosystem responses metrics will be identified as used within the eight8 major Western United States river basins identified in the SWA.  Future year activities will be focused on consistent and common approaches to identifying climate change impacts on ecosystems as affected by water management operations.

 

Last updated: 10/31/12